$124,000 has been collected by the S.F. Botanical Society through the non-resident fee program and reported to the Recreation and Park Department from inception (8-7-10) until 11-22-10.
This represents about 19% of the revenue towards the RPD’s estimate in 29% of the time elapsed to reach the estimate.
Based on our analysis (see table 1), sales generated from the fee for a full fiscal year could fall somewhere between $425,000 - $475,000 – not $650,000 as assumed in the RPD plans submitted to the Board of Supervisors. A 28% to 35% revenue shortfall should be expected.
These figures appear to show a severe reaction to the fee. Non-resident attendance, according to the same methodology, is likely to be between 60,000 to 70,000 for the year – not 107,000 as planned by RPD in their original calculations. RPD assumed a 50% fall-off rate among non-residents with the introduction of the fee compared to an estimate of pre-fee attendance, actual figures suggest around 70% of non-resident visitors will decide not to enter.
The RPD has by now conceded that it will fall short of its forecast, but insists that the fee is worth continuing. Please continue to express to our city officials - the Mayor and the Supervisors - that the Arboretum fee is very damaging and needs to be removed.
Data, Analysis & Projection:
Table 1: Projections for Annual Fee Performance
|Aug (act/calc)||$ 50,071||100%||7,244||100%|
|Sep (act/calc)||$ 35,181||70%||5,576||77%|
|Oct (act/calc)||$ 28,935||58%||4,590||63%|
|Nov (act/calc)||$ 25,435||51%||4,019||55%|
Note: August through November 22nd are numbers calculated from averages of actual daily revenue collected at the Main and North Gates and reported to RPD, other months are projections using August actual information as a 100% baseline (shown in % columns).
Source: RPD data through Sunshine Ordinance requests.